Starting in December, the Bureau will improve how we communicate long-range forecasts to make them easier to understand.
These changes will encourage people to focus on our long-range forecasts. We will reduce the emphasis given to climate indicators, previously referred to as climate drivers like El Nino and La Nina. This will help producers make decisions using the most relevant forecasts for Australia. These forecasts consider all ocean and atmospheric conditions that affect seasonal weather.
What will change?
From December 2024, the Bureau will stop issuing these standalone products:
- Fortnightly Climate Driver Update
- La Niña or El Niño Watch or Alert statements, or the ENSO dial
- International climate model summaries and forecasts for ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole
Climate indicator information will still be available on our website. These include:
- Sea surface temperatures
- El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) – neutral, La Niña, or El Niño
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) – neutral, positive, or negative
- ENSO and IOD forecasts using the Bureau’s climate model
- Southern Annular Mode (SAM) – neutral, positive, or negative
- Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) – location and strength
We will also change how we talk about long-range forecasts. We will refer to ‘climate indicators’ instead of ‘climate drivers’. This is because many other factors influence our weather and climate patterns.
We plan to make other updates to long-range forecast products in the coming months. These will make them easier to use and understand.
What does this mean for producers?
Agriculture decision-makers should use the Bureau’s long-range forecasts. These are the most reliable prediction for the coming months. Long-range forecasts are available on the Bureau’s website. You can also subscribe to regular “Climate Outlooks” emails on our sign-up page.
Detailed climate information will still be available for climate advisors on the Long-range weather and climate website.
Please reach out if you have any questions. The Bureau’s Agriculture team is happy to provide more information. We welcome your feedback on how to communicate these changes to your stakeholders. Contact me or a team member at Agriculture@bom.gov.au if you would like more information.
